No return in long run
Saturday, 28th March, 2015
If you believe the bookies, today’s state government election is a foregone conclusion.
They say the Liberals and Nationals are firm favourites to win, especially in the newly-expanded Barwon electorate where Broken Hill finds its place in the state today.
No longer is the Silver City the major voice in its own electorate, and with the replacement of our local MP John Williams, the likelihood that we’ll have a local voice in state parliament is as slim as a pensioner’s wallet.
The traditional Labor versus Coalition tussle was always going to be David-versus-Goliath affair in Barwon.
The Nationals’ Kevin Humphries enjoyed a huge wave of support at the last election, and even when the traditional Labor stronghold of Broken Hill was added to the electorate, the pundits have still put him way out in front.
Kevin Humphries is the rising star of the Coalition, a Minister with a seat at the big table, a very skilled and persuasive politician.
His well-oiled campaign in the lead-up to the election has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars worth of promises into the ears of voters.
If Labor’s Craig Ashby was to get up and win, and we wish him the very best of luck, we’d do well to strap a pair of ice skates on him and send him off to the next Winter Olympics, such would be his Bradbury-esque victory.
So if Humphries is so far out in front, why shouldn’t we vote for him?
Fast forward four years and put yourself in the Premier’s shoes for a moment.
You’re the boss, looking out over our wide, brown state. You can just see over the Blue Mountains from your skyscraper in Sydney.
Things haven’t gone so well in the four years since the last election. The poles and wires deal was blocked in the upper house, the cash-cow Sydney property market has dried up, the state coffers aren’t so full anymore.
There’s not enough money to go around, some of the electorates are going to have to take a hit.
Who would you pick?
Who could take a big drop in votes and still get over the line at election time?
Don’t back the favourite today.
In the long-run, you’ll get bugger all in return.